FWRG Company Profile and Key Details

FWRG has shown mixed momentum, losing -1.03% over the past week and -9.04% over the past quarter, though year-to-date performance is up 8.09%. Short-term trend indicators are bullishly aligned (SMA20 -16.72%, SMA50 -17.66%, SMA200 -21.29%). The stock’s 14-day RSI is 33.04 (weak momentum), while the ATR of 0.86 points to higher daily volatility. The stock remains sitting in the mid-range of its 52-week band, trading -40.2% below its high and over 8.1% above its low. Average 10-day trading volume of 1.18 million shares is below the 3-month average of 1.71 million, indicating normal recent market interest.

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. has 61.02 million shares outstanding. The public float is 50.61 million shares, elevated short interest at 14.87% of float. This equals 5.98 million shares. The short ratio is 8.24 days. Institutional investors hold 112.32% of the float. Insiders own 1.99%. Advent International GPE VIII-H Limited Partnership holds 41.56 million shares, White Michael James has 41.56 million shares and GPE VIII GP Limited Partnership has 41.56 million shares. Over the past six months, insider transactions show net selling. They sold 86.98 thousand shares across 15 transactions.

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. last paid a dividend of 0 per share, Dividend and splits history remains an important factor for investors monitoring long-term returns. A discounted cash flow model estimates fair value at around $5.22. This means the shares are trading above this model’s fair value.

Wall Street analysts project EPS growth of 10.64% annually over the next five years. The latest quarter delivered EPS of $0.13. The next quarter is forecast at -$0.02. Next year's EPS is expected at $3.94. Analyst sentiment is bullish. Analyst rating data shows there are 7 Strong Buy ratings, 7 Buy ratings, 0 Hold ratings, 0 Sell rating and 0 Strong Sell ratings. Price targets range from $26.00 to $19.00. The high target offers 102.18% upside. The low target suggests 47.74% downside. The mean target is $22.07. This offers 71.62% upside. First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. earnings surprise history is a mixed track record. The quarter that ended November 04, 2025, missed forecasts by 66.25%. The prior quarter beat by -57.14%. Over the last six quarters, Apple has recorded several small beats. These include 148.92% in August 06, 2024.

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. trades at a P/E ratio of 43.73, slightly above the S&P 500 average, with a price-to-sales ratio of 0.65 and a price-to-book ratio of 1.26 suggesting the stock is closer to book value. The P/FCF stands at -25.49, also below market averages.

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:FWRG) closed at $12.86 USD, gaining $0.11 (0.86%) from the previous close of $12.75. The stock is currently mid-range between its 52-week high and low $10.09 and $20.55. With a market capitalization of about $786.24 million, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. is classified as a small-cap and shows market-like volatility (beta ~0.98). Key stats such as the average daily volume over the past year has been around 1.77 million shares, volume is running light vs its 52-week average. Headquartered in Bradenton, FL, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector and the Restaurants industry. Led by CEO Christopher A. Tomasso, the company employs approximately 15,000 people and listed since October 01, 2021. First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name.

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:FWRG) shares are flat 8.09% year-to-date currently trading near 52-week highs band. Short-term momentum has been negative over the last quarter, despite recent volatility. Valuation shows First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. trading at a premium to the broader market with a P/E of 43.73. Analyst sentiment is bullish, with the majority of ratings in Buy territory and a mean price target of $21.74, suggesting 69.05% upside. Our AI forecast model points to short-term weakness (-1.09% over two weeks), a medium-term fall (-31.96% over three months), and a longer-term loss (-52.95% over one year), with expected trading ranges indicating moderate volatility.

Our AI price prediction model suggests that First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. stock has strong potential for upside but may face short-term weakness followed by gains in the medium and long term. 2-Week Outlook: Projected decline of -1.09%, with price expected at $12.72 by May 04, 2026, within a range of $12.09 to $13.35 3-Month Outlook: Projected fall of -31.96%, reaching $8.75 by July 16, 2026, with a range of $8.42 to $9.11. 1-Year Outlook: Projected loss of -52.95%, with price at $6.05 by April 20, 2027, within a range of $0.00 to $3.09.