ARI Company Profile and Key Details

ARI has shown mixed momentum, gaining 0.4% over the past week and 0.4% over the past quarter, though year-to-date performance is up 3.51%. Short-term trend indicators are bearishly aligned (SMA20 4.14%, SMA50 5.85%, SMA200 7.08%). The stock’s 14-day RSI is 62.69 (firm momentum), while the ATR of 0.25 points to higher daily volatility. The stock remains hovering near 52-week lows, trading -4.33% below its high and over 39.22% above its low. Average 10-day trading volume of 2.35 million shares is significantly above the 3-month average of 1.08 million, indicating heightened recent market interest.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (NYSE:ARI) closed at $10.72 USD, losing -$0.15 (-1.38%) from the previous close of $10.87. The stock is currently within 5% of its 52-week high $7.70 and $11.21. With a market capitalization of about $1.49 billion, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. is classified as a small-cap and shows higher-than-market volatility (beta ~1.56). Key stats such as the average daily volume over the past year has been around 1.13 million shares, in line with its 52-week average. Headquartered in New York City, NY, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates in the Real Estate sector and the REIT - Mortgage industry. Led by CEO Stuart A. Rothstein, the company employs approximately 0 people and listed since September 24, 2009. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments in the United States.

Wall Street analysts project EPS growth of 43.5% annually over the next five years. The latest quarter delivered EPS of $0.30. The next quarter is forecast at $0.24. Next year's EPS is expected at -$4.19. Analyst sentiment is bullish. Analyst rating data shows there are 5 Strong Buy ratings, 0 Buy ratings, 2 Hold ratings, 0 Sell rating and 0 Strong Sell ratings. Price targets range from $11.00 to $10.00. The high target offers 2.61% upside. The low target suggests -6.72% downside. The mean target is $10.54. This offers -1.68% upside. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. earnings surprise history is a consistent trend of beating forecasts. The quarter that ended October 30, 2025, missed forecasts by 21.36%. The prior quarter beat by 0.0%. Over the last six quarters, Apple has recorded several small beats. These include 2.94% in August 06, 2024.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. last paid a dividend of 1 per share, this equals a trailing yield of roughly 11.51%. Dividend and splits history remains an important factor for investors monitoring long-term returns. A discounted cash flow model estimates fair value at around $13.73. This means the shares are trading below this model’s fair value.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. has 138.94 million shares outstanding. The public float is 129.96 million shares, elevated short interest at 3.59% of float. This equals 3.57 million shares. The short ratio is 3.66 days. Institutional investors hold 69.5% of the float. Insiders own 0.61%. Qatar Investment Authority holds 6.77 million shares, Athene Group Ltd has 2.31 million shares and ZIMAN RICHARD S has 935.60 thousand shares. Over the past six months, insider transactions show net selling. They sold 104.14 thousand shares across 2 transactions.

Our AI price prediction model suggests that Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. stock has strong potential for upside but may face short-term weakness followed by gains in the medium and long term. 2-Week Outlook: Projected increase of 11.75%, with price expected at $11.98 by February 19, 2026, within a range of $11.77 to $12.20 3-Month Outlook: Projected rise of 41.14%, reaching $15.13 by May 06, 2026, with a range of $14.70 to $15.63. 1-Year Outlook: Projected gain of 182.93%, with price at $30.33 by February 05, 2027, within a range of $17.72 to $46.66.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (NYSE:ARI) shares are flat 3.51% year-to-date currently trading near 52-week highs band. Short-term momentum has been positive over the last quarter, despite recent volatility. Valuation shows Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. trading at a premium to the broader market with a P/E of 10.86. Analyst sentiment is bullish, with the majority of ratings in Overweight territory and a mean price target of $13.14, suggesting 22.57% upside. Our AI forecast model points to short-term strength (11.75% over two weeks), a medium-term rise (41.14% over three months), and a longer-term gain (182.93% over one year), with expected trading ranges indicating moderate volatility.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. trades at a P/E ratio of 10.86, slightly below the S&P 500 average, with a price-to-sales ratio of 2.5 and a price-to-book ratio of 0.81 suggesting the stock is closer to book value. The P/FCF stands at 26.73, also below market averages.