NuScale Power Corporation (NYSE: SMR) received a notable rating downgrade from Citigroup analyst Vikram Bagri on October 21, 2025, when Bagri cut his recommendation to Sell with a price target of $37.50. This revision comes as the company’s shares face increasing downward pressure, signaling cautious sentiment from one of the sector’s heavyweight institutional voices. For investors, the downgrade highlights growing concerns about valuation and near-term volatility, despite the company’s impressive longer-term gains.
Recent Price Action Reflects Intensifying Investor Skepticism
SMR closed recently at $44.21, down 8.4% on above-average volume, marking a sharp reversal from prior support levels. The stock has shed approximately 23% off its 52-week highs, signaling a shift in momentum among traders. Daily trading volumes, while elevated to 14.5 million shares, remain slightly below the trailing average of roughly 17.7 million, suggesting that investors are treading carefully rather than aggressively buying into recent dips.
The stock exhibits notable beta volatility of 2.03, indicative of higher systemic sensitivity relative to the broader market. Such volatility was palpable over the last week, with price swings amplifying uncertainty. This choppiness is consistent with the broader tech and clean energy sectors, where valuations are frequently re-priced amid shifting macroeconomic factors and regulatory developments.
Historical Performance Shows Mixed Signals
NuScale’s stock performance over various time frames paints a complex picture. Despite a relatively muted quarterly return of -0.5%, the stock has delivered a staggering 224.6% gain over the past year. This impressive run underscores early investor enthusiasm for NuScale’s innovative modular nuclear technology, a space garnering increased attention as decarbonization becomes a priority.
More recently, the stock has encountered a modest pullback, shedding 5.5% over the past month amid rising market volatility—weekly volatility stands at a hefty 15.5%, while monthly volatility is near 10.5%. These figures suggest that while the stock harvested outstanding gains through 2025, it is now grappling with profit-taking and reassessment of growth prospects amid evolving investor priorities.
Earnings Reveal Persistent Losses but Manageable Deviations
NuScale’s latest earnings release on August 7, 2025, highlighted an EPS of -$0.13, slightly worse than the consensus estimate of -$0.12. While the company remains unprofitable, it delivered a modest positive surprise of 8.3% compared to analyst expectations. This marks an improvement relative to the previous quarter’s EPS miss, which was more significant at -16.5%.
The consistent EPS losses reflect ongoing heavy investment in research, development, and project deployment—a hallmark of early-stage technology firms. Yet the narrowing gap between estimates and actual results could suggest that management’s execution is stabilizing, keeping investor confidence tentatively intact despite lingering concerns over profitability timelines.
Analyst Sentiment Turns Cautious, Reflecting Mixed Consensus
Looking across the broader analyst community, NuScale’s rating consensus over the past 90 days illustrates tempered optimism. Of 18 analysts covering the stock, 13 hold a Neutral stance, while only three advocate buying, and two now recommend selling. The average price target currently stands at $43.86, slightly below the recent trading price but still reflective of some upside potential. However, targets vary widely, with bullish calls pushing as high as $60 and more conservative views setting lows near $34.
Citigroup’s downgrade by Vikram Bagri to Sell, with a $37.50 price target—nearly 15% below the current share price—marks a notable shift. Bagri’s call underscores concerns over valuation risks and potential headwinds in project execution or regulatory hurdles that could delay profitability further.
A Moderate Stocks Telegraph Grade Points to Balanced Fundamentals
The Stocks Telegraph Grade, a composite score evaluating NuScale’s overall investment quality, sits at 53 out of 100. This middling rating reflects balanced fundamentals: while the company benefits from sector leadership in modular nuclear technology and strong growth potential, it faces execution risks and lower near-term profitability.
This score suggests that NuScale is neither a clear standout nor a weak performer within its universe. Instead, it embodies characteristics of a high-risk, high-reward proposition that warrants close monitoring as the company navigates scaling challenges and industry headwinds.
Conclusion: NuScale Represents a Volatile, Growth-Oriented Play for Risk-Tolerant Investors
NuScale Power Corporation currently fits the profile of a speculative growth stock suited for investors with a high-risk tolerance and a long-term horizon. The recent Sell rating from Citigroup, coupled with elevated volatility and a significant recent price correction, signals the potential for further near-term downside.
However, the stock’s extraordinary one-year appreciation and continued technological innovation present compelling reasons for growth-seeking investors to stay engaged. Those betting on the company’s successful commercialization of modular nuclear reactors must remain vigilant about execution risks and regulatory developments that could influence timelines and costs.
In sum, while NuScale’s long-term prospects in a carbon-constrained energy future remain tantalizing, the path forward is tempered by uncertainty—making it a story still unfolding and ripe for scrutiny amid shifting market dynamics.
