On Monday, October 20, 2025, Alexander Sklar of Raymond James upgraded nCino, Inc. (NCNO) to a Strong Buy, spotlighting the cloud banking software company’s compelling valuation and growth prospects. The new $36 price target implies a roughly 45% premium over the current trading price near $24.85, underscoring expectations for a meaningful rebound in the months ahead. This rating shift arrives as investors weigh recent softness in the stock against improving operational metrics and a constructive earnings surprise this past quarter.
Recent Price Action Reflects Investor Caution amid Volatility
Over the last several trading sessions, NCNO’s share price has demonstrated modest but meaningful recovery, jumping 4.6% (+$1.09) on solid volume just under 1.5 million shares exchanged — slightly below the three-month average. Trading around $24.85, the stock remains more than 40% off its 52-week high, which languishes above $43, signaling investor unease amid a broader tech selloff and sector rotation. At the same time, NCNO has maintained a floor well above its 52-week low in the mid-$20s, suggesting underlying support despite recent turbulence.
Volatility, measured weekly and monthly at roughly 3.4-3.5%, reflects the stock’s sensitivity to macroeconomic and sector-specific factors. Notably, NCNO’s beta sits at 0.65, indicating it is less volatile than the overall market, which may appeal to investors hunting for growth plays with modest risk relative to broader tech peers.
A Challenging Downtrend Over Time
Examining NCNO’s historical performance provides important context for Raymon James’ bullish repositioning. The stock has struggled recently, shedding more than 16% over the past 30 days and 20% on a quarterly basis, with volatility contributing to choppy price action. Over the last year, NCNO has declined approximately 29%, a steep selloff driven in part by valuation reset fears in the cloud and SaaS space amid rising interest rates and capital market jitters.
However, these declines have created a potentially attractive entry point for investors focused on nCino’s long-term growth trajectory in the fintech platform arena. The significant drawdown, coupled with solid trading volumes averaging nearly two million shares daily over the last 10 days, points to sustained investor interest ready to pivot should fundamental catalysts materialize.
Earnings Show Positive Momentum
nCino’s latest quarterly earnings report released August 26, 2025, bolstered confidence by surpassing consensus expectations. The company posted earnings per share of $0.22, comfortably beating the estimate of $0.14 by over 57%. This marks a pronounced improvement compared to the prior quarter’s $0.16 EPS, which merely matched estimates.
Such an earnings surprise indicates operational execution is improving despite the challenging macro backdrop and signals potentially stronger revenue growth and margin expansion ahead. For a firm in its scale-up phase, these beats underscore the predictability and quality of earnings — a critical metric when assessing stocks in volatile technology sectors.
Consensus and Analyst Sentiment Reflect Cautious Optimism
Despite recent weakness, NCNO’s 90-day consensus rating conveys a broadly positive view. Out of 12 analyst ratings, eight advocate Buy, four rate the stock Hold, and notably, none recommend Sell. The average price target stands at $36.50, closely aligned with Raymond James’ $36 target. The range spans from a low of $32 to a high of $41, reflecting moderate divergence on valuation but consensus on upside potential.
Raymond James’ Strong Buy endorsement is the most optimistic call to date, likely to influence market perception by reinforcing nCino’s sector positioning and growth prospects.
Fundamental Assessment: Stocks Telegraph Grade Flags Risks
nCino’s Stocks Telegraph grading score stands at 30, which suggests significant caution from a composite metric assessing financial health, market positioning, and growth potential. While this grade implies that nCino is not yet a fundamentally dominant player, the gap between this quantitative metric and analyst enthusiasm speaks to the company’s ongoing transformation and risks tied to execution and competitive pressures.
Investors should consider that the somewhat low ST score might partly reflect the valuation volatility and emerging profitability profile typical in SaaS growth stocks transitioning toward scale.
Conclusion: A Recovery Play for Growth-Oriented Investors
For investors inclined toward long-term growth opportunities in financial cloud software, nCino represents a promising albeit volatile prospect. The company’s affirmed earnings momentum and solid analyst backing, including a recent Strong Buy upgrade, suggest the worst of the selloff may be behind it, offering a potentially attractive entry point near 52-week lows.
That said, the stock’s sizeable downward price trend and moderate fundamental score counsel caution. NCNO appears best suited for investors with a higher risk tolerance who believe in the company’s ability to capitalize on digitization trends within banking and fintech sectors. Monitoring upcoming earnings and execution against targets will be pivotal in confirming whether the current valuation discount is justified or poised for a sustained rebound.
In sum, nCino’s shares currently trade at a crossroads—discounted relative to prior highs but buoyed by solid fundamentals and positive sentiment, making it a stock worth watching as the cloud banking landscape evolves.
