Citigroup analyst Alexander Hacking upgraded Commercial Metals Company (NYSE: CMC) to a Buy rating on October 17, 2025, setting a price target of $65. This bullish move signals growing confidence in the steel and metal products maker’s near- to medium-term prospects, against a backdrop of recent volatility and modest gains. Hacking’s call comes as CMC’s shares trade at $55.35, implying roughly 18% upside from current levels, an attractive potential given ongoing market uncertainties.
Recent Market and Price Action Reflect Renewed Investor Interest
CMC’s stock has demonstrated a steady bounce in recent sessions, gaining 2.8% on moderate trading volume of 1.28 million shares, above the average daily volume of about one million. This uptick narrows the gap with its 52-week high, which the stock currently trails by 14.2%. The upward shift in price suggests investors are digesting encouraging analyst sentiment alongside underlying fundamental signals, despite a beta of 1.32 that points to somewhat heightened volatility.
Price action in the past week shows minor fluctuations within a range that reflects broader cyclical pressures on the metals industry. The 52-week low stands at $45.97, giving the stock a solid cushion and highlighting CMC’s resilience amid sector headwinds. As investor appetite returns, trades have increasingly embraced the notion that CMC is positioned to weather near-term challenges while capitalizing on selective demand recovery.
Performance Overview: Stability Amid Volatility
Examining CMC’s performance over multiple horizons reveals a nuanced picture. Over the past 30 days, the stock has slid 5.35%, a modest pullback likely influenced by broader market rotations and sector-specific uncertainties such as fluctuating commodity prices and geopolitical trade dynamics. Yet, over the 90-day timeframe, CMC’s shares have rebounded more robustly, gaining 5.07%, signaling a longer-term recovery phase.
Looking out further, the 12-month return clocked in at a modest 3.42%, reflecting subdued but positive growth versus a challenging macroeconomic backdrop for industrial materials. Volatility metrics suggest the stock experiences a weekly volatility rate of 4.15%, slightly higher than the monthly volatility of 3.11%, underscoring episodic swings that investors should monitor closely.
Trading volumes over the recent 10-day and 3-month averages — 1.53 million and 974,000 shares respectively — reveal growing interest, further supporting the thesis that the market is carving out renewed confidence in CMC’s trajectory.
Earnings Highlight Solid Execution and Marginal Upside
Commercial Metals Company’s latest quarterly earnings report, released just a day before Hacking’s upgrade, showed an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.37 against a consensus estimate of $1.32, marking a positive surprise of approximately 3.8%. This outperformance contrasts with the prior quarter’s disappointment, when CMC posted EPS of $0.74 versus an estimate of $0.85, missing expectations by over 13%.
The recent beat suggests the company is beginning to regain a firmer grip on operational efficiencies and pricing power, key factors for a cyclical commodity firm. Analysts view this EPS uptick as a signal of earnings quality and the potential for improved margins in the coming quarters, which aligns with Citigroup’s optimistic outlook.
Analyst Consensus Reflects Gradually Improving Sentiment
Consensus ratings over the prior three months show a cautiously constructive stance on CMC, with six analyst opinions split into four Buys and two Holds, and no Sell recommendations. The average price target rests at $63.17, which is consistent with Hacking’s $65 target, while the range spans a high of $70 to a low of $56.
This distribution indicates a prevailing buy-side bias tempered by acknowledgment of risks, likely tied to cyclicality and input cost volatility. The absence of sell-side negativity underscores a market perception that Commercial Metals remains a credible growth and value proposition, particularly within the industrial materials sector focal turnaround.
Fundamental Health: Moderate but Challenging
Commercial Metals’ Stocks Telegraph Grade stands at 52, placing it in the moderate range on a scale assessing financial stability, growth potential, and market positioning. This middling score reflects solid but not exceptional fundamentals — the company benefits from a strong market position and steady cash flows but faces typical industry headwinds including raw material price swings and cyclical demand.
Investors should interpret this grade as evidence of consistency without an overwhelming catalyst. It highlights that while CMC is unlikely to be a flash growth story, it delivers dependable exposure to metal markets with a relatively stable competitive footing.
Conclusion: A Position for Patient Growth-Oriented Investors
Citigroup’s Buy rating on Commercial Metals Company, coupled with a favorable price target, suggests the stock merits consideration among investors seeking steady, cyclical industrial exposure with upside potential. The company’s recent earnings beat and improving volumes underscore a nascent recovery, even as near-term volatility remains a factor to watch.
CMC appears suited for investors comfortable with commodity cycles and who seek a blend of moderate growth and dividend income over the long run. Risks include raw material cost fluctuations and economic downturns, but the stock’s current valuation and market sentiment indicate room for appreciation.
In a sector marked by shifts and uncertainty, Commercial Metals stands out as a pragmatic choice for those anticipating gradual normalization in metals demand, supported by operational discipline and improving earnings quality. Its measured profile combined with analyst enthusiasm makes it worthy of a closer look as markets navigate the remainder of 2025.
